The challenge is how to address Baltic security concerns while avoiding steps that would lead to a more unstable situation with Russia in the future. It is also related to the now near-extinct Livonian language spoken as a second language by a few dozen people in Latvia. With Ben Hodges, a former U.S. Army commander in Europe and now my colleague at the Center for European Policy Analysis, I have spent the past year deep in the weeds, looking at the problems of Baltic Sea regional security and how to fix them. Nowhere is the credibility of the United States and its allies at greater risk than in the Baltic Sea region. [4][5], All three Baltic countries experienced a period of authoritarian rule by a head of state who had come to power after a bloodless coup: Antanas Smetona in Lithuania (19261940), Krlis Ulmanis in Latvia (19341940), and Konstantin Pts during the "era of silence" (19341938) in Estonia, respectively. Since 2003, there is coordination between the two organizations.[21]. The radars will form part of the Baltic states' joint airspace surveillance . Swedish remains spoken in Estonia, particularly the Estonian Swedish dialect of the Estonian Swedes of northern Estonia and the islands (though many fled to Sweden as the USSR invaded and re-occupied Estonia in 1944). Estonia adopted the euro currency in January 2011, Latvia in January 2014, and Lithuania in January 2015. ", "The Annexation of the Baltic States and Its Effect on the Development of Law Prohibiting Forcible Seizure of Territory", "These Names AccuseNominal List of Latvians Deported to Soviet Russia", "Communism and Crimes against Humanity in the Baltic states", "Murder of the Jews of the Baltic States", "Country Profiles: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania", "U.S.-Baltic Relations: Celebrating 85 Years of Friendship", Annexed Baltic States: Envoys Hold On to Lonely U.S. Postings, "The intersection of Ethnic Nationalism and People Power Tactics in the Baltic States", "Swedish political attitudes towards Baltic independence in the short twentieth century", "Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia: Co-operation among the Baltic States", "Macroeconomic Legal Trends in the EU11 Countries", "Building methodology, assessing the risks: the case of energy security in the Baltic States", "The Baltic states should adopt the self-defence pinpricks doctrine: the "accumulation of events" threshold as a deterrent to Russian hybrid warfare", "Pilsonbas un migrcijas lietu prvalde Kda 404", "POPULATION BY SEX, ETHNIC NATIONALITY AND COUNTY, 1 JANUARY. The armed resistance of the anti-Soviet partisans lasted up to 1953. [33][34], The term Baltic stems from the name of the Baltic Sea a hydronym dating back to at least 3rd century B.C. [39] Since World War II the term has typically been used to group the three countries Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow maintains imposing and generously staffed embassies across central and eastern Europe, which the host countries say provide convenient cover for espionage. These three countries each have their own distinct language and culture, however, their histories often overlap. The Soviet Union recognized the independence of three Baltic states on 6 September 1991. It would be good to test that assumption with realistic, hard exercises where decision-makers can practice surmounting the bureaucratic and physical obstacles hampering effectiveness in real time. NATO's Baltic States, Russia remove ambassadors as diplomatic relations downgraded By Andrius Sytas [1/2] A view shows the Russian embassy building in Tallinn, Estonia January 21, 2023. But the inducements encourage U.S. companies to invest only at homenot elsewhere. In fact, glacial deposits in the form of eskers, moraines, and drumlins occur in profusion and tend to disrupt the drainage pattern, which results in frequent flooding. NATO also has overwhelming air power superiority that would factor into any battle with Russia in the Baltics, Plesch pointed out. [6] Some controversy surrounds the Baltic authoritarian rgimes due to the general stability and rapid economic growth of the period (even if brief), some commenters avoid the label "authoritarian"; others, however, condemn such an "apologetic" attitude, for example in later assessments of Krlis Ulmanis. These differing threat assessments and political approaches are obstacles to everything else. But this independence was short-lived. Latvia is sandwiched between Estonia to the north and Lithuania to the south. Throughout the course of WWII, all the Baltic States lost significant portions of their populations. Military Analysis: Another factor: the NRFA is not a legally binding document, added Mary Elise Sarotte, a Cold War historian and professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. This reality gives the alliance flexibility with regard to NRFAs terms, she told VOA by email. It is dangerously outdated now. All Baltic states are now part of NATO and the European Union. Please follow our comment guidelines, stay on topic, and be civil, courteous, and respectful of others beliefs. All too often, the highlight is a distinguished visitor day closer to a theatrical performance than a training event, where participants identify problems by experiencing them. What can we glean from the current state of play on the battlefield? The Baltic States subsequently came under Nazi occupation, but by 1945, the Soviets retook the Baltics, which again became part of the USSR. Please refer to the appropriate style manual or other sources if you have any questions. Since the decline of Russian influence and integration into the European Union economy, English has become the most popular second language in the Baltic states. Lithuania said it was sending two diplomats home and Latvia and Estonia one each. Currently, U.S. troops are part of NATO's Baltic rotational battlegroups, which are led by Germany, Britain, and Canada. Corrections? In August 1940, all three Baltic States were made Soviet republics, which meant that they became part of the USSR. FPsRavi Agrawalsat down with U.S. Trade RepresentativeKatherine Tai, the Biden administrations top official tasked with mapping out and implementing the White Houses trade policy. All Baltic states are now part of NATO and the European Union. Delivered Monday-Saturday. [24], Even now being a part of the European Union, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are still considered as the most vulnerable EU member states in the energy sphere. On 23 August 1989, the Baltic Way, a two-million-strong human chain, stretched for 600km from Tallinn to Vilnius. Most Latvians are Christian, mainly belonging to the Lutheran, Roman Catholic, and East Orthodox churches. Is the Biden administrations China policy too hawkish? With the advent of Foreningen Norden (the Nordic Associations), the term was no longer used for Sweden and Denmark. The peoples in the Baltic states have together inhabited the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea for millennia, although not always peacefully in ancient times, over which period their populations, Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian, have remained remarkably stable within the approximate territorial boundaries of the current Baltic states. One-stop digest of politics, economics, and culture. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded NATO withdraw all outside forces from the region and commit to Sweden and Finland never being allowed to join. This is largely due to a Soviet policy of encouraging the mass immigration of Russian workers to the country. Worked as a journalist on 7 continents and reported from 40+ countries, with postings in London, Wellington, Brussels, Warsaw, Moscow and Berlin. These must include surprises, disruptions, escalations, and hard decision-making, with advanced technology at the forefront. Doing that for the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuaniathree thinly populated states squeezed between Russia,. The classified version would form the basis for military planning, exercises, and budgeting. It therefore makes sense for the senior U.S. officer on the continentthe Supreme Allied Commander Europe, known as SACEURto have the political preauthorization they need to issue orders in circumstances short of war. Moreover, several routes of oil delivery also have been sustained from Soviet times: These are ports in Ventspils, Butinge and Tallinn. [27], The calculations take into account not only economic, but also technological and energy-related factors: Energy and carbon intensity of transport and households, trade balance of total energy, energy import dependency, diversification of energy mix, etc. Each of the three countries has declared itself to be the restoration of the sovereign nation that had existed from 1918 to 1940, emphasizing their contention that Soviet domination over the Baltic states during the Cold War period had been an illegal occupation and annexation. Browse an unrivalled portfolio of real-time and historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts. In August 2001, Latvia and Estonia agreed to jointly purchase long-range radars from Lockheed Martin. Shortly after World War II began, Soviet leader Josef Stalin coerced the leaders of all three Baltic States into allowing Soviet troops into their countries. Any NATO expansion is sensitive for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who cited the issue as a justification, among others, for his invasion of Ukraine. Germanys shilly-shallying over Ukraine, which included banning Estonia from donating some much-needed howitzers to the beleaguered Ukrainians, have intensified doubts. If Putin had hoped to weaken NATO, the very opposite has happened, with Finland and Sweden on the cusp of joining the transatlantic military alliance. The Baltics, former Soviet states, have watched with concern as Moscow tries to reassert influence across Eastern Europe. Many here worry that if Ukraine falls, they might be next. There is now little doubt that Putin failed in his initial goals: Kyiv is still Show morestanding, Ukrainians are determined to keep fighting, and the West has so far stayed resolute in its support of Ukraine. The Estonians are a Finnic people, which means that they are strongly related to the Finns, as is their language, Estonian. The world over, countries are embarking on ambitious projects of industrial policy. Click + to receive email alerts when new stories are published on. Meanwhile, these economies were stabilised, and in 2004 all of them joined the European Union. On the surface, everything looks fine. Area 67,612 square miles (175,116 square km). Even if there are several electricity interconnectors that connect the area with electricity-rich states (Estonia-Finland interconnector, Lithuania-Poland interconnector, Lithuania-Sweden interconnector), the pipeline supply of natural gas and tanker supply of oil are unreliable without modernization of energy infrastructure. "We are aware of the fact that the Russian tanks, which are currently burning in Ukraine, were intended for a large-scale invasion of NATO countries, including Estonia," he said. The battle was fought in 1410during the PolishLithuanianTeutonic War. Two groups called the Samogitians and the Aukstaiciai became the Lithuanians, and five other groups would form the modern-day Latvian nation. All three became NATO members on 29 March 2004, and joined the EU on 1 May 2004. The command structure is like a bowl of spaghetti. By one estimate from Harvard University, more than 130,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or severely wounded, in addition to the deaths of more than 7,000 Ukrainian civilians. Russia. About a quarter of Latvias population is nonreligious. Flights were already banned from Russia as part of an EU-wide decision. Soldiers of a Nato battlegroup at a ceremony marking the fifth anniversary of Nato's enhanced presence in the eastern part of the alliance in Rukla, Lithuania, on February 9th, 2022. Some emphasise that the events in Lithuania differed from the other two countries, with Smetona having different motivations as well as securing power eight years before any such events in Latvia or Estonia took place. Overall population fell in each of the Baltic states in the years following independence, primarily because of the return emigration of Russians to Russia, as well as other out-migration to western Europe and North America. Unlike Ukraine, they had joined NATO in the early 2000s, and now enjoy the. These moves, though desirable, are belated and insufficient. Other countries are much later to the party and more cautious in what they sayand thats before you get to the huge problem of Germany. The NATO presence was further strengthened this year after Russia attacked Ukraine. the Krecik radar station located about 500 km from Iran, is in service as part of the NATO missile defence system. A multitude of rivers, notably the Neman (Lithuanian: Nemunas) and Western Dvina (Latvian: Daugava), empty northwestward into the Baltic Sea. (thesis, University of Connecticut, 2013). Estonia is the northernmost of the Baltic States. That was a defensibleif optimisticassumption in the 1990s. Behind all that is the regional U.S. headquarters in Poland and its main headquarters for Europe in Virginia. Across the Baltic Sea, Sweden and Finland have also been boosting their spending. Join FPs Ravi Agrawal for a frank discussion about the Biden administrations China policy and alternatives that it ought to consider. The Baltic States were subsequently admitted to the United Nations. [32] In Soviet times this made them appear as the "West" of the Soviet Union in the cultural and political sense, thus as close to emigration a Russian could get without leaving the USSR. Download the FP mobile app to read anytime, anywhere. Politicians and decision-makers in the region still have radically different threat assessments. Although the armed resistance was defeated, the population remained anti-Soviet. Usually the concept of energy security is related to the uninterruptible supply, sufficient energy storage, advanced technological development of energy sector and environmental regulations. Russian was the most commonly studied foreign language at all levels of schooling during the period of Soviet rule in 19441991. There is no common maritime strategy, though control of the Baltic Sea in a crisis will determine what happens on land. For example, a Polish exercise last year, despite making generous assumptions about their access to advanced weaponry, ended with Polish forces being slaughtered in five days and the Russians poised to take Warsaw. But the inducements encourage U.S. companies to invest only at homenot elsewhere. Like Latvia, Lithuania also had a large Jewish community, but it too was decimated by the Holocaust. Russian cyberattacks and sub-threshold warfare are already evident; Sweden, for example, is worried by mysterious drone flights. These two non-NATO countries have close military ties with each other as well as NATO. The spy rows have come at a time of acute tensions between Russia and the West, including over Ukraine and over the fate of opposition Russian leader Alexei Navalny, who on Friday announced he was ending a three-week hunger strike in jail. Ukraines economy and infrastructure have been dealt blows that will take decades to recover from. The European Unions fumbling efforts to codify its approach to common security and defense policy need clear language on military preparedness and its willingness to use force in response to aggression. Delivered Friday. It had, however, been embroiled in a bloody civil war back in 1918, something that had not happened in the Baltic states. Yet below the surface, the regions defense and security arrangements, far from threatening Russia, look troublingly flimsy. 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